Title
Separability of hurricane surge and sea level rise adaptation
Author(s)
Orton, P. M.;Bond, C.;Fisher, K.;Sanderson, E. W.;Zhang, F.;Chen, Z.;Talke, S. A.
Published
2018
Abstract
Existing flood-protection infrastructure—dikes, sea-walls, and other measures—have historically been capable of resisting "common" floods from nor'easters or king tides. As sea level rises, many regions are becoming increasingly susceptible to moderate flooding from such events as those barriers become overtopped more frequently. By contrast, for hurricane-prone areas, extreme surge events such as hurricane Sandy have always caused severe flooding, with impacts only modestly influenced by sea level rise. Given their different magnitude and susceptibility to sea-level rise, it may be best to address common and extreme floods separately. For example, gated storm surge barriers are designed to stop extreme floods, but do not solve the long-term problem of sea level rise. Here, we explore the potential role of both natural and nature-based features (NNBF) and surge barriers in the separation of common and extreme flood adaptation.
First, we evaluate the efficacy of surge barriers as a partial solution to coastal flooding using idealized analyses over a range of flood hazard scales, sea level rise rates, and coastal geometries. Then, we describe a case study of Jamaica Bay, New York City, where the Corps of Engineers determined a surge barrier was the central component of an optimal solution. The scale difference of the extreme and common flood events is large; the extreme event scenario for planning in the bay is the base flood elevation of 4.5 m NAVD88, yet the typical annual maximum storm tide plus waves is only about 2 m. We summarize our own benefit-cost analysis for different combinations of grey infrastructure and NNBF for Jamaica Bay, presented elsewhere at this conference, and evaluate the best option over a range of ecosystem services for addressing the evolving problem of coastal flooding. Key attributes promoting separation of adaptation strategies are a high scale parameter for the coastal flood extreme value distribution, and a large estuary coastline length relative to coastal barrier/inlet width.
Keywords
Climate change and variability;ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;Extreme events;NATURAL HAZARDS;Risk;Hydrodynamic modeling;OCEANOGRAPHY
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PUB24419