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Title
Extent of occurrence and area of occupancy of the Andean bear (Tremarctos ornatus) in Ecuador
Author(s)
Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián ;Paredes, Diana;Utreras B., Víctor ;Zapata-Ríos, Galo
Published
2017
Abstract
The Andean bear (Tremarctos ornatus) is considered an endangered species in Ecuador due to its small population size. Its geographic distribution has been partially quantified and both the effectiveness of protected areas in habitat protection and the impact of climate change are unknown. We used ecological niche models and single-season occupancy models to estimate habitat suitability, occupancy probability, extent of occurrence (EOO) and area of occupancy (AOO) of the Andean bear in Ecuador, and assessed the effectiveness of protected areas and the impact of climate change (RCP 8.5 scenario) between 1990 and 2070. Between June 2015 and June 2016 we implemented sampling with 306 camera trap stations in 2448 km2 of the Ecuadorian Andes between 600 and 4100 m elevation. Our sampling effort was 12,672 trap-nights and 355 detections. Habitat suitability, occupancy probability, EOO and AOO in 2017 were 62% (95% CI: 55-68), 37% (95% CI: 35-39), 92,001 km2 and 32,426 km2, respectively. Up to 30% of the EOO and AOO are within Ecuador's protected area system. In theory, protected areas are assuming an effective role in protecting the geographic distribution of the Andean bear in Ecuador; however, more than 50% of the areas with the highest habitat suitability and probability of occupancy are unprotected. Global warming appears to have no significant impact on the climatic niche of the Andean bear in Ecuador; between 1990 and 2070 habitat suitability, occupancy probability, EOO and AOO ranged from 44% (95% CI: 39-49) to 28% (95% CI: 24- 31), 38% (95% CI: 35-41) to 37% (95% CI: 35-39), 105.602 km2 to 90,303 km2 and 42,237 km2 to 34,550 km2, respectively. Our results update the knowledge of the geographic distribution of this species in Ecuador, constitute the first quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change on the species in the country, and suggest an update of territorial planning to improve the management of protected areas.

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PUB22447