Title
Rhinos in the Parks: An Island-Wide Survey of the Last Wild Population of the Sumatran Rhinoceros
Author(s)
Pusparini, W.;Sievert, P.R.;Fuller, T.K.;Randhir, T.O.;Andayani, N.
Published
2015
Publisher
PLoS ONE
Abstract
In the 200 years since the Sumatran rhinoceros was first scientifically described (Fisher
1814), the range of the species has contracted from a broad region in Southeast Asia to three
areas on the island of Sumatra and one in Kalimantan, Indonesia. Assessing population and
spatial distribution of this very rare species is challenging because of their elusiveness and
very low population number. Using an occupancy model with spatial dependency, we
assessed the fraction of the total landscape occupied by Sumatran rhinos over a 30,345-km2
survey area and the effects of covariates in the areas where they are known to occur. In the
Leuser Landscape (surveyed in 2007), the model averaging result of conditional occupancy
estimate was c^ðSE½c^Þ ¼ 0:151ð0:109Þ or 2,371.47 km2, and the model averaging result of
replicated level detection probability p^ðSE½p^Þ ¼ 0:252ð0:267Þ; in Way Kambas National
Park—2008: c^ðSE½c^Þ ¼ 0:468ð0:165Þ or 634.18 km2, and p^ðSE½p^Þ ¼ 0:138ð0:571Þ; and in
Bukit Barisan Selatan National Park—2010: c^ðSE½c^Þ ¼ 0:322ð0:049Þ or 819.67 km2, and
p^ðSE½p^Þ ¼ 0:365ð0:42Þ. In the Leuser Landscape, rhino occurrence was positively associated
with primary dry land forest and rivers, and negatively associated with the presence of a
road. In Way Kambas, occurrence was negatively associated with the presence of a road. In
Bukit Barisan Selatan, occurrence was negatively associated with presence of primary dryland
forest and rivers. Using the probabilities of site occupancy, we developed spatially
explicit maps that can be used to outline intensive protection zones for in-situ conservation
efforts, and provide a detailed assessment of conserving Sumatran rhinos in the wild. We
summarize our core recommendation in four points: consolidate small population, strong protection,
determine the percentage of breeding females, and recognize the cost of doing nothing.
To reduce the probability of poaching, here we present only the randomized location of
site level occupancy in our result while retaining the overall estimation of occupancy for a
given area.
Keywords
Conservation science;Forests;Habitats;Rivers;Wildlife;Endangered species;Species extinction;Indonesia
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PUB15677