Title
Data-driven models for regional coral-reef dynamics
Author(s)
Zychaluk, K.;Bruno, J. F.;Clancy, D.;McClanahan, T. R.;Spencer, M.
Published
2012
Publisher
Ecology Letters
Abstract
Coral reefs have been affected by natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Coral cover has declined on many reefs, and macroalgae have increased on some. The existence of alternative stable states with high or low coral cover has been widely debated, but not clearly established. We evaluate the evidence for alternative stable states in benthic coral-reef dynamics in the Caribbean, Kenya and Great Barrier Reef (GBR), using stochastic semi-parametric models based on large numbers of time series of cover of hard corals, macroalgae and other components. Only the GBR showed a consistent short-term regional decline in coral cover. There was no evidence for regional increases in macroalgae. The equilibrium distri
Keywords
Alternative stable states;Caribbean;Coral reefs;Great Barrier Reef;Integral equation;Kenya;Large ecological databases;Local linear estimation;Partially specified model;Semi-parametric model
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PUB15008