Title
Simulating the population impact of canine distemper virus on Amur Tigers (Panthera Tigris Altaica) in Russia
Author(s)
Gilbert, M.;Miquelle, D.G.;Goodrich, J.M.;McAloose, D.;Korotkova, I.;Ivanchuk, G.;Lyubchenko, E.;Seimon, T.A;.;Cleaveland, S.;Matthews, L.;Joly, D.O;.
Published
2013
Abstract
Lethal infections with canine distemper virus (CDV) have recently been diagnosed in Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica), but the implications for the population have not been determined. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of CDV on the growth and persistence of a key tiger population in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik (SABZ). An individual-based stochastic, SIRD model was used to simulate infection through predation of infected domestic dogs and/or wild carnivores, and intraspecific transmission through tiger-to-tiger interaction. Simulations were based on scenarios where prevalence of CDV in predated carnivores remained constant, or fluctuated on 3, 5 and 7 year cycles. CDV prevalence and effective contact based on published and observed data was used to define plausible low and high-risk infection scenarios. CDV infection increased the 50-year extinction probability of tigers in SABZ by 2.1% (low risk) to 64.3% (high risk) compared to a control population without CDV. Simulations that adjusted duration of infectious period, or included epizootic infection waves had little or no additional impact. The study findings demonstrate that where tigers coexist and interact with other carnivores, multi-host pathogens such as CDV have the potential to reduce population growth and increase extinction probability.
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PUB13830