Title
Towards pathways bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity trends within the 21st century
Author(s)
Leclere, D.; Obersteiner, M.; ...; Watson, J.E.M.; et al.
Published
2018
Abstract
Unless actions are taken to reduce multiple anthropogenic pressures, biodiversity isexpected to continue declining at an alarming rate. Models and scenarios can be used to help designthe pathways that sustain a thriving nature and its ability to contribute to people. This approach hasso far been hampered by the complexity associated with combining projections of pressures on, andsubsequent responses from, biodiversity. Most previous assessments have projected continuousbiodiversity declines and very few have identified pathways for reversing the loss of biodiversitywithout jeopardizing other objectives such as development or climate mitigation. The Bending TheCurve initiative set out to advance quantitative modelling techniques towards ambitious scenarios forbiodiversity. In this proof-of-concept analysis, we developed a modelling approach that demonstrateshow global land use and biodiversity models can be combined to can shed light on pathways able tobend the curve of biodiversity trends as affected by land-use change, the biggest current threat tobiodiversity. In order to address the uncertainties associated with such pathways we used a multimodelframework and relied on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway/Representative ConcentrationPathway scenario framework. This report describes the details of this modelling approach.
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